Maven Trading · event contracts, not currencies
Two challenges separated by one rule
Maven sell two evaluations settled on prediction-market contracts, and every rule they publish for the pair is the same except one. Essential caps the loss at 3% trailing the intraday equity high. Elite caps it at 5% static.
Elite costs 66% to 68% more at every size both are sold at — a markup flat enough to be the price of that one rule — and models at 59% failure against 95%. That is 36 points, and it comes with the largest caveat on this page.
What Maven publish for each
| Rule | Essential | Elite |
|---|---|---|
| Overall loss limit | 3% trailing the intraday equity high | 5% static |
| Profit target | 9% | 9% |
| Daily loss limit | none, stated | none, stated |
| Minimum trading days | none, stated | none, stated |
| Time limit | none | none |
| Profit split | 70% | 70% |
| Fee refunded on passing | no | no |
| Ends after, at 1% risk | 3 losses | 5 losses |
The greyed rows are identical, and the build fails if any of them stops being so — because if one does, the price difference is no longer buying a single rule.
What the one rule costs
| Account | Essential | Elite | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| $5K | $40 | $67 | +68% |
| $10K | $76 | $126 | +66% |
| $20K | $139 | $234 | +68% |
| $50K | $324 | $540 | +67% |
| $100K | $540 | $900 | +67% |
Within 2 points across the whole ladder. Almost nothing else on this site is priced that consistently, and it is what makes the pair readable as an experiment: one rule, one price for it.
The number rests on a figure Maven publish two ways
UNRECONCILED CONTRADICTION ON THE DRAWDOWN, and it is the figure everything here is computed from. The FAQ says 3%; two product cards say 5%. The stricter 3% is recorded because this field cannot hold an absence, so the figure errs against the firm rather than against a reader sizing risk. Check it at the source before paying.
What that means here specifically: if the product cards are right and Essential’s cap is 5% rather than 3%, the two programmes differ only in whether the cap follows you — both would absorb 5 losses at 1% risk, and most of the 36 points above would not be there.
Elsewhere on this site the stricter reading of a contradiction shifts a figure. This is the one page where it decides the headline.
And the gap is understated, not overstated
Essential’s cap follows the highest equity the account touched inside the session, which is reached by a floating loss never closed. The published percentage is therefore larger than the allowance actually held, and every figure computed against it comes out optimistic — which is why this site bars drawdowns of that kind from winning a recommendation rather than trusting their numbers.
Elite’s is static and carries no such discount. So 95% is a floor for Essential and 59% is an estimate for Elite, and the real distance between them is wider than 36 points rather than narrower.
The two caveats therefore point opposite ways, and a buyer needs both: the contradiction could erase most of the gap, and the drawdown kind widens whatever gap is left.
A rule that exists nowhere else here
A PER-QUESTION PROFIT CAP with no equivalent anywhere else on this site: no more than 3% of the starting balance may be generated from any one question, and profit beyond that is removed.
On an FX account the equivalent would be a cap on how much of your profit any one currency pair may produce, and no firm here has one. It exists because a prediction market resolves: a single question you were right about can settle the whole target at once, and the cap is what stops that counting.
What this does not measure
- · Whether the model applies at all. It counts a run of losing trades of equal size against a cap. Event contracts resolve to nothing or to everything, so a “trade” here has a shape the model was not built for. The ordering is safe; the absolute figures are far shakier than they are on an FX page.
- · The per-question cap. It limits how much of the target one resolved question may supply, and nothing above accounts for it. It makes both programmes harder than modelled, and equally so.
- · Liquidity. Prices come from Kalshi and Polymarket. Whether the contract you want is tradable at the size you want is a question no rules page answers.
- · Everything in the assumptions. Assumes each trade is independent. Correlated positions — three majors against the dollar — lose together and count as one. Assumes every trade risks the same amount. Raising size after a loss shortens the streak you can survive. Uses your stated win rate. If that came from a demo account or a good month, the figure below is optimistic.
Where these rules and prices were read
Maven Trading — FAQ — read 2026-08-23
Questions
- What is the difference between Maven’s Prediction Markets Essential and Elite?
- One published rule. Essential's overall loss limit is 3% trailing the intraday equity high; Elite's is 5% static. The 9% profit target, the absence of a daily limit, of minimum trading days and of a time limit, the 70% split and the per-question profit cap are the same on both.
- How much more does Elite cost?
- 66% to 68% more, at every one of the 5 sizes both are sold at — $40 against $67 at $5K, $540 against $900 at $100K. A markup that flat across a ladder is the price of the one rule that differs.
- Is Elite worth the premium?
- At 1% risk per trade it models at 59% failure against Essential's 95% — 36 points, because 5% of static room absorbs 5 consecutive losses where 3% absorbs 3. Read that with the caveat below: Maven publish Essential's cap two different ways, and the stricter reading is the one used here. Assumes each trade is independent. Correlated positions — three majors against the dollar — lose together and count as one.
- What are prop firm prediction markets?
- An evaluation settled on event contracts instead of currency pairs. Settled on event contracts rather than FX: "The data feed comes from MatchTrade and follows the markets on Kalshi or Polymarket." Contracts are priced like binaries, so a position at 19% odds costs about $0.19.
- Is there a profit cap on these accounts?
- A PER-QUESTION PROFIT CAP with no equivalent anywhere else on this site: no more than 3% of the starting balance may be generated from any one question, and profit beyond that is removed.